How the war affects the real estate market in Spain in 2026

The war in the Middle East is already beginning to have consequences on the European economy and also in Spain.. The first effects are being noticed in the energy and financial markets, which could end up directly influencing the mortgage market and the real estate sector.

The rise in oil and gas prices once again generates inflationary pressures. This could condition the decisions of the European Central Bank (BCE) about interest rates. If inflation picks up again, The ECB could stop rate cuts or even keep them higher for longer.

In that scenario, The Euribor – the main reference index for mortgages – could rise or remain high, making financing for home purchases more expensive.

How the war can affect the real estate market in Spain

International conflicts usually have an indirect effect on the real estate market. Factors such as inflation, the price of energy, The evolution of the Euribor and investor confidence can influence mortgage financing and housing demand.

In the current case, The conflict in the Middle East could generate a scenario of greater economic uncertainty, which could affect both access to financing and the pace of sales in the Spanish real estate market..

The real impact on the market will depend largely on the duration of the conflict. The longer the situation of international instability continues, the greater its effect on the real estate market.

Impact on the market and financing

More expensive mortgages

Geopolitical instability has reactivated inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices (oil and gas). This makes it difficult for interest rates to fall quickly., keeping mortgages at high levels and reducing the purchasing capacity of many families.

stock market

Real estate companies listed on the Spanish stock market have also suffered the impact of international uncertainty. Following the latest events in the Middle East, several securities in the sector have registered falls, reflecting immediate investor distrust.

Investment and sales dynamics

Lower foreign investment

Global uncertainty is causing a cooling in home purchases by international buyers. At the beginning of 2026 falls close to the 13,5 % in this type of operations.

Real estate as a safe haven asset

Despite the uncertainty, The real estate sector continues to be considered by many investors as a safe haven asset against the volatility of other financial markets in times of crisis or international conflict..

Prices and offer in 2026

Rising prices

Although the number of sales has decreased, house prices continue to rise. Forecasts for the first half of 2026 They point to increases of between 6 % and the 9 %.

Supply shortage

The international conflict adds to structural problems that already affected the Spanish real estate market, such as the lack of available housing and regulatory uncertainty. This is causing increasing competition between real estate agencies to capture product..

The precedent of the Ukrainian war

The war between Russia and Ukraine offers a recent example of how an international conflict can affect the real estate market.

In 2022, The rise in gas and oil prices triggered inflation in the euro zone, which forced the European Central Bank to raise interest rates up to 4 %. As a consequence, The Euribor went from being negative at the beginning of that year to exceeding the 4 % in 2023.

The result was an increase in the cost of variable mortgages and a slowdown in the number of home sales..

Later, when inflation began to moderate, The ECB reduced rates in 2024 until they are close to the 2 %, and the Euribor progressively fell to levels close to the 2,2 %.

If the current conflict in the Middle East continues, we could see a similar scenario: More expensive mortgages and a slower housing market.

Conclusion

In a context of international uncertainty, The real estate market tends to adapt more slowly than other sectors, but it is not immune to global economic changes. The evolution of the Euribor, Inflation and investor confidence will be key factors in determining how the sector will behave in the coming months.

In these types of scenarios, Having professional advice is essential to make real estate decisions with greater security. Analyzing the market moment well can make the difference between a good investment and a missed opportunity.

Are you thinking of selling your home?

If you are considering selling your home and want to know what its real price is in the current market, It is important to analyze factors such as demand in the area, the evolution of housing prices and the economic situation.

A professional assessment can help you make the best decision.

👉 Request a free valuation of your home and discover what its price could be in the current market.